US election watch: Eyes on the senate
As the presidential race continues to dominate headlines, we must not neglect the fight for Capitol Hill.
By Peter Tutykhin and Billy Thompson
Welcome back to Bournbrook’s regular series on the state of the US presidential race, your impartial guide to the campaign and what you can expect as election date draws near.
Voting in the 2020 election officially started last Friday, as North Carolina began sending over 600,000 mail-in (or absentee) ballots. Due to the Coronavirus pandemic, some states have expanded access to absentee and/or early voting, with about 39% of Americans preferring to vote by mail this November (according to Pew Research).
So far in this series, I have largely focused on the race for the White House, the ‘horse race’ between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. However, we must not neglect the ‘down the ballot’ races which will, come November, decide the composition of the United States Congress. To that effect, this week marks our first look at the campaign for Capitol Hill. I say ‘our’ as I am joined this week by my friend, Bournbrook contributor and fellow elections obsessive Billy Thompson, who will outline eight key Senate races you should be watching this year. But first…
The state of the race
Towards the end of last month, the Democrats and then the Republicans held their (respectively very online and somewhat less online) national conventions. Traditionally, both parties can expect a short-term boost in the opinion polls after the event. However, it was unclear as to what impact this year’s very unusual formats would have upon the race. Given a wave of recent polling, we may have our answer.
In short: Joe Biden’s national lead over Donald Trump increased from 8.4% to 9.3% following the Democratic convention, and then decreased to 7.5% in the aftermath of the Republican convention (according to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average). As far as ‘convention bounces’ go, these are very modest figures (for both candidates). Joe Biden continues to hold a large, albeit not insurmountable, lead over the president, just as he has done since the spring. As far as the national polling is concerned, this election has, thus far, been very stable.
There is some good news for the president. His position in swing states remains noticeably better than in national polling. Trump is currently down 4.5% in Pennsylvania and only 2.8% in Florida. His approval rating now stands at 43%, a modest improvement from a few weeks ago. In the first instalment of this series, back in June, I predicted that the race would tighten. The big question is whether it will tighten fast enough. As noted above, some people have already started voting.
Now, over to Billy…
Eight Senate races you should be watching
As the media and general observers of the upcoming US elections focus on the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, it’s easy to forget it’s not just the presidency up for grabs this time. Along with the White House, the whole of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate are up for election.
This has huge implications for the power of the incoming president and whether they will be able to enact their legislative agenda. When Donald Trump became president in 2017, the Republican party was at an all-time high in terms of its control over the three branches of government. They had maintained a solid majority in the House since the 2010 Midterm elections and a majority in the Senate since the 2014 Midterm elections. Along with having a conservative majority on the US Supreme Court, the Republicans were in total control of the federal government.
However, the 2018 Midterm elections saw the Democrats regain the House, allowing them to hold up President Trump’s domestic agenda like the Republicans did to Obama after 2010. The Senate elections in 2018, on the other hand, saw the Republicans increase their majority by gaining two seats off the Democrats. This means that, for the Democrats to take control of the Senate, they will need to gain four seats off the Republicans in order to have a majority of one. If Kamala Harris becomes the vice president, then the Democrats would only need to gain three seats, as the vice president assumes the role of Senate tie-breaker.
Arizona (special election)
Arizona is an intriguing race to start with as this seat was last up for election in 2016. John McCain was re-elected in 2016 for another Senate term but died of cancer in 2018. Therefore the 2020 election will be to complete the current term until 2022. The Democrats had not won a Senate election in Arizona since 1988, that is, until 2018, when the state’s other Senate seat went Democrat. As a result, all eyes are focused on this key battleground, with Democrat Mark Kelly currently leading Republican Martha McSally by a strong margin between 5-15 points. If the Democrats win the second Arizona Senate seat, it would be a watershed moment in US politics similar to Trump winning the Rust Belt seats of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016.
Georgia
Going into 2020, Georgia has not one but two Senate elections taking place. Georgian Senator David Perdue is up for re-election, but his colleague Senator Johnny Isakson has decided to retire due to health concerns. Isakson’s seat is projected to remain solidly Republican, but Perdue is in a battle to get re-elected. Close 2018 congressional races in Georgia have meant that Perdue could be in trouble this year.
Kansas
Kansas is another intriguing race in which the Republicans are facing a competitive challenge from the Democrats. Congressman Roger Marshall is currently in a battle against former Republican turned Democrat State Senator Barbara Bollier. Bollier has been within the margin of error of potentially taking the historically Republican Senate seat for the Democrats. He is also benefiting from Democrat Laura Kelly winning the gubernatorial election here in 2018.
Kentucky
On the surface, Kentucky looks like a true red Republican state. Mitch McConnell has been the incumbent Senator here since 1984 and has served as Senate Majority leader since 2014. However, McConnell is also deeply unpopular and not just with liberals. In fact, he has consistently held the position of being the most unpopular Senator in America, with his low approval ratings low in Kentucky as well. However McConnell is a bloodened campaigner who knows how to mobilise his state’s conservative base. Kentucky is still likely to remain Republican, but it is definitely a wildcard, as a perfect storm could see even the truest of red states going blue.
Maine
Maine, in New England, is a perplexing state in that it has on the whole consistently voted Democrat in Presidential elections since 1992, yet incumbent Republican Senator Sue Collins has served there since 1996. However, she is in danger of losing to the Democrats this year, who have out-raised her three to one. Collins has made tactical blunders in voting to acquit Trump of impeachment charges earlier this year (not a popular move in a blue state), while her vote for Trump’s Supreme Court picks has given the Democrats ammunition needed to paint her as a fervent Trumpian, even as she claims otherwise.
Montana
Another state that one would not expect on this list a few years ago is Montana, which voted overwhelmingly for Trump back in 2016. However the Democrats are benefiting from their candidate being the incumbent governor who had won two terms in a row. This might produce a similar effect to what happened in Florida in 2018, when incumbent two-term governor Rick Scott beat Senator Bill Nelson in a seat that was expected to remain Democrat. This Montana seat has only elected one Republican since 1913, so the Democrats do have a chance of flipping it in November.
North Carolina
Perhaps the most pivotal marginal contest that will decide which party takes control of the US Senate. Thom Tillis took the seat for the Republicans in 2014, handing Mitch McConnell control of the upper house. Tillis faces an uphill battle this year and will need to rely on a big Trump win in the state to help him retain the seat, as Democrat Cal Cunningham remains ahead in the polls.
South Carolina
The last seat to watch is a wildcard but could end up being the story of the night if the Democrats pull this off. Lindsey Graham has held the seat for the Republicans since 2003 and has been one of the biggest names in the party for well over a decade. However, his recent conversion from being a Trump-sceptic to a die in the wall Trump supporter has alienated some voters in South Carolina and could see him lose the seat. Graham is only just the favourite at the moment but the fact that he is even at risk of losing shows how monumental the Democrat blue wave could be in November.